The Almond Board of California released the July Position Report on Tuesday, August 12th. This is the 12th and final report for the 2024 crop year. Key highlights are below: 

Receipts

Receipts in July were 434.26 thousand lbs., up 33.0% from last July’s receipts of 326.47 thousand lbs. This brings final receipts for the 2024 crop year to 2.713 billion lbs., up 10.9% vs last year’s 2.446 billion lbs. The final crop size came in even below the 2024 Objective Estimate of 2.8 billion which was believed to be on the low side when released. Growers will likely point to this miss to show that the 2025 Objective Estimate can also be overestimated.

Shipments

Total shipments FTM were 197.15 million lbs., coming in above industry expectations of 180 million lbs. This shipment number is up 9.9% vs. last July’s 179.43 million lbs. Total shipments ended the year at 2.65 billion lbs. down 1.7% vs last year’s shipments of 2.69 billion lbs. Shipments struggled in the second half of the crop year, largely held down by domestic shipments while export shipments saw growth YoY.      

Domestic shipments were 50.15 million lbs., down 5.6% vs last year’s 53.10 million lbs. Domestic shipments had their worst shipment month of the year to end the 2024 crop year. Domestic shipments finalized at 7.79% down YoY after a lackluster final 6 months of the crop year. This also caused domestic shipments to hit their lowest point since the 2015/2016 crop year. Domestic consumption was the glaring concern of the 2024 crop year, one in which both growers and handlers are now looking for answers on how to improve for the upcoming 2025 crop year. 

Export shipments were 147.00 million lbs., which is 16.4% up vs last year’s 126.34 million lbs. Export shipments had a good month to end the crop year, which helped export shipments end up YoY. Exports finished the year at 1.98 billion lbs., up .57% on the year vs last year’s 1.96 billion lbs. Export markets are becoming a higher percentage of total almond consumption year over year and now represent ~75% of total shipments. All regions besides China ended the year up vs. last year which has shown derisking vs. the volatile trade situation into China. India has their largest shipment month of the year which brought their shipments up YoY. 

Sales & Commitments: Sales FTM were 100.25 million lbs., up 43.4% vs. last year’s sales of 69.92 million lbs. Current crop sales were very strong for the end of a crop year, this is largely due to export buyers needing to ensure early shipments to reach their destinations in time as they wait for the 2025 crop to be harvest. New crop sales were 173.37 million lbs. up 61% vs last year’s 107.73 million lbs. New Crop and current crop sales combined helped finish the year on a strong note and showed that there remains both motivated buyers and sellers at the updated price levels post the objective estimate.     

Commitments for the 2024 crop year stand at 215.48 million lbs., which is down 9.27% vs the 237.51 million lbs. from last year. The domestic market is largely leading this decline similar to YoY shipments as this market is seeing the most uncertainty with demand. New Crop commitments are 284.83 which is down 25% vs. last year’s 379.01 million lbs. Both domestic and export buyers along with California sellers remain under committed vs. this time last year.  

Uncommitted 2024 crop inventory finalized at 299.39 million lbs., up 11.7% vs last year’s 267.93 million lbs. Uncommitted Inventory finished nearly at Par with last year and the majority of this product is unsaleable in current form.

In a Nutshell: 

The July Position Report was a strong report to end the 2024 crop year. Shipments and sales all beat expectations and allowed CA to make up some much needed ground to ensure they had sales to start the early 2025 crop year shipment period strong. This final strong report brought carryout to 515 million lbs. which is only 10 million lbs. larger than last year’s 505 million lbs. Even with decreased domestic demand the 24 crop size was about even with overall demand. While carryout will likely be adjusted next month with a final loss and exempt number, overall the lower carryout helps limit early pressure on CA handlers. 

The 2024 crop size finalized roughly 90 million lbs. less than the 2024 Objective Estimate which has given further pause from growers in the belief of a 3.0 billion lbs. crop on the trees for the 2025 crop. Early harvest news has added fuel to this fire. With reports that early harvested fields have had poor yields, with these fields being down YoY. However, the early stuff always looks poor and we will know more as we get into the heaviest part of harvest over the next month to see if this trend continues.

The 2024 crop year saw its ups and downs. With export markets once again showing resilience with improved demand, while the domestic market is showing further weakness in consumption. A further uptick in pricing from this point would be predicated on domestic demand once again finding its footing or the 2025 crop to be closer to the 2024 crop in total size.    

Link to Position Report