The Almond Board of California released the "July Position Report" on Friday August 9th. This is the final report for the 2023 crop year. Key highlights are below:

Receipts

Receipts in July were 326,466 lbs., down 86.2% from last July’s receipts of 2.36 million lbs. Receipts have finalized at 2.446 billion lbs., -4.9% vs. last year’s production of 2.571 billion lbs.

Shipments

Total shipments FTM were 179.43 million lbs., coming in below industry expectations of 200 million lbs. This shipment number is down 3.87% vs. last July. With this shipment number and the final 4.23% of L/E, the carryout is 450.89 million lbs., comprised mostly of high SD material.

Domestic shipments were 53.10 million lbs., down 6.1% vs last year’s 56.52 million lbs. Domestic shipments have finished the year 1.63% up vs. last year’s 716.36 million lbs. and will need to carry this upward trend into the 24 crop to help carry the weight of the estimated higher production.

Export shipments were 126.34 million lbs., which is 2.9% down vs last year’s 130.14 million lbs. Although down FTM, export shipments have finalized at 6.26% ahead of last year with all major destinations, besides China, up YTD. The 2023 export shipment numbers represent the second highest for the industry all time. India and ME set their own personal bests with 400.19 million lbs. and 324.43 million lbs. shipped respectively.

Sales & Commitments:

Total sales FTM were 69.92 million lbs., down 36% vs. last year’s sales of 108.56 million lbs. As stated last month, this is no surprise as the inventory on quality grades has been thin for months. New crop sales continue to layer on ahead of last year for the third month in a row, with 107.73 million lbs. sold in July, up 30.58% vs. last year. 

Commitments for the 23 crop year stand at 237.51 million lbs., which is down 36% vs the 372.93 million lbs. from last year. Total commitments of 23 and 24 crop years stand at 616.51 million lbs. which is up 6.70% vs last year’s 577.82 million lbs. 

Uncommitted 2023 crop inventory sits at 267.93 million lbs., down 36.05% vs last year’s 418.96 million lbs. 

In a Nutshell: 

Overall, the July Position Report was mixed. California missed on securing the anticipated sub 450 million lb. carryout. On the other hand, the industry hit on total commitments being up 6.70% going into a similar overall supply scenario to the year we just completed.  

India blew it out of the park this season with record shipments, but are thinly covered for the coming months to meet the Diwali demand, let alone normal consumption. Many believe, as India goes the industry will go. We will see here very soon as India will have to buy and California will have to sell.

Harvest is ramping up in the Valley, with many huller/shellers firing up next week. All eyes will be on quality and sizing as processors begin to receive their first loads in the coming weeks.