(Lake Tahoe above on April 2nd. from the top of Heavenly Valley)

California weather made a strong comeback through March and April Fools was on us, as rain and snow continued to accumulate into early April. This gave the Sierra’s a much needed boost to reach an average 96% to normal at this time. Unfortunately, in the south part of the Sierra’s it remains 70% to normal, keeping us mindful that our water supply will remain a critical factor for the state of California this year. 

However, this is not what has been on everyone’s mind this week, as the U.S. put forth sweeping tariffs across all major and minor trading partners on Thursday. While it is unknown how this will affect the almond market directly at this time, considering almost 80% of Almonds are exported, one would expect an impact at some point. This year’s crop is all but sold, as supply has been under pressure almost since the beginning of the year. The March shipment report is due out this week and is expected to remain strong. Therefore, if the tariffs do remain in effect or some other form of them stay for any extended period of time, it may be affecting next year’s crop more so than the current crop. 

Market Update:

The industry is now over a full month into the growing season following a bloom best characterized as somewhat spotty. As reported, bee-hive health was very questionable this year as hives arrived into the state in poor condition. It remains to be seen what the overall effect will be to the 2025/2026 crop as we are expected harvest around 1.35 million acres this year which is down vs. last year. Thus far from our own orchards, all looks good overall. Most are expecting next years’ crop to look similar to this year. Within the next four weeks we will see some crop estimates be posted from some of the various industry pundits. The subjective estimate from the USDA is anticipated to announce their estimate by May 12, 2025. 

The Almond Board of California will release the March position report this week on April 10th. The industry expects this report to exceed 215 million pounds shipped. Last year the industry shipped 237 million pounds in March. With less supply this year overall, at some point we will not be able to keep up with similar shipments going forward. 

Shipments:

Total shipments year to date are at 1.588 billion pounds, flat to a year ago. Total supply this year may be down about 100 million pounds. With that in mind, shipments at some point will have to slow down. With the prospect of a similar size crop to next year (given that demand worldwide remains similar), the industry will continue to take a measured approach to remaining inventories and the sale of new crop. 

Sales & Commitments: Sales in February were consistent with expectations with 221 million pounds sold. This sets up a scenario for strong shipments in the second quarter. With Commitments at 577 million lbs. down -8.5%, the domestic market remains the least committed. We will see how this shifts if at all with next week’s report. 

Finally with Uncommitted inventory sitting at 965 million lbs. up 4% from the 929 million lbs. this time last year, total uncommitted has dropped below a billion pounds. Quick math shows how quickly that can disappear with the industry expectations to target a 500 million pound carry-out which appears to already be a challenge when forecasting shipments for the remainder of the year.

Upcoming Industry Milestones:

• Position Report:  April 10, 2025
• Subjective Estimate: May 20, 2025

Bullish Trends:

• Shipments remain on track and in conjunction with the shorter crop now expected.  
• With pricing levels continuing to be firm on the lower grades, the delta between higher grades is becoming narrower. More pressure expected on the higher grades to be pushed up as a result. 
• Speculation on overall bloom results may keep prices firm on the remaining crop as inventories shrink and expectation of next year’s crop remains in question.  

Bearish Trends:

• With the tariff announcements this week, pressure will be put on remaining inventories and could result in less overall demand in the months ahead.
• With a February tick down in shipments for both domestic and export overall down -2.8%, will this set a trend for the remainder of the crop year? 
• While bloom was labeled questionable by many growers, California had great bloom weather followed by rainstorms, plenty of snow in the Sierra’s and all is set up for a great growing season.